# Predictive analytics to anticipate demand, risk and churn > Predictive models trained on your history to anticipate demand, payment risk or customer churn, explained in business language. Built in Mexico City. Page: https://chilaquil.mx/en/solutions/predictive-analytics · Versión en español: https://chilaquil.mx/soluciones/analitica-predictiva.md Module 04 · Predictive analytics · [Solutions](https://chilaquil.mx/en/solutions.md) We train models on your sales, inventory or collections history and connect them to your operation: forecasts and alerts your team understands and can act on. - In: Sales, inventory, collections - Out: Forecasts and alerts - Explanation: In business language ## What it solves **Decisions backed by data, before it happens.** If your reports explain last month well but don’t help plan the next one, a model can cover that part. - **Gut-feel decisions.** Purchasing, production and collections are planned on the experience of a few people. - **Stockouts and overstock.** What sells runs out and what doesn’t piles up, with capital stuck in the warehouse. - **Risk seen too late.** Customers who will stop paying or buying are spotted after the fact. - **Reports that look back.** Dashboards explain last month, but not what comes next. ## How it works **Models you can understand and measure.** 1. **Data.** We review what history exists and what shape it is in. 2. **Baseline.** We measure how well things are predicted today, to have a comparison. 3. **Model.** We train and validate on data the model hasn’t seen. 4. **Integration.** Forecasts reach your ERP, dashboard or inbox. 5. **Monitoring.** We compare forecasts with actuals and retrain when needed. Exception: Every forecast comes with the factors that weighed most. When the model has low confidence, it flags it for a person to decide. ## Scope **What it usually predicts.** We start with the decision that moves the most money and already has history to learn from. - Demand by product and branch - Reorder points - Payment default risk - Customer churn - Collections priority - Ticket or call volume - Delivery times - Anomaly detection ## What you get **A solution in production, not an endless pilot.** - Models in production connected to your data. - Forecasts and alerts in your ERP, dashboard or inbox. - An explanation for each prediction and ongoing accuracy tracking. - Code, models and documentation: 100% yours. - Deployed in your cloud or on private infrastructure. - Metrics agreed in the assessment and periodic reports. ## Use cases **Where it usually starts.** Illustrative scenarios. In every project we define up front what will be measured. ### Sales: Demand forecasting for restocking A model anticipates stockouts and suggests when and how much to reorder. Measured: idle inventory and stockouts. ### Finance: Collections priority It ranks accounts by default risk so the team calls the ones that matter most first. Measured: receivables over 60 days. ### Sales: Customers at risk of churning It spots changes in buying patterns and alerts the account manager before the account is lost. Measured: customers recovered after an alert. ## Integrations Connects to what you already use: ERP, CRM, SQL databases, Spreadsheets, BI dashboards, Custom APIs. ## Questions **About predictive analytics.** ### How much data do I need? It depends on what you want to predict. During the assessment we review your history and tell you whether it is enough or what to start recording. ### How accurate are the forecasts? We don’t promise a number before seeing your data. We measure today’s accuracy as a baseline and compare the model against it on data it hasn’t seen. ### Will my team understand the model? Every prediction comes with the factors that influenced it most, explained in business language rather than technical terms. ### What happens when the market changes? We track accuracy every month and retrain the model when it starts to slip. **What would you like to know before it happens?** ## Contact In the free assessment we review your current process and tell you what to automate first. We reply within 24 h. - Email: contacto@chilaquil.mx - Phone and WhatsApp: +52 56 3791 2905 (https://wa.me/525637912905) - Telegram: https://t.me/chilaquilmx - X: https://x.com/chilaquilmx - Form: https://chilaquil.mx/en/#contacto - Hours: Monday to Friday, 9:00 to 18:00 (Mexico City time) - Languages: Spanish and English ## Other modules - [AI agents for operations](https://chilaquil.mx/en/solutions/ai-agents.md): They run complete tasks —capture, validate, follow up— and escalate to a person when something doesn’t add up. - [Document automation](https://chilaquil.mx/en/solutions/document-automation.md): Reading and validating CFDI invoices, contracts and case files, with traceability for every extracted field. - [Knowledge assistants](https://chilaquil.mx/en/solutions/knowledge-assistants.md): They answer with the source cited, drawing on your manuals, policies and internal knowledge bases. - [AI inside your systems](https://chilaquil.mx/en/solutions/ai-integration.md): We connect models to your ERP, CRM and WhatsApp so AI works where your team already works. - [AI-powered digital products](https://chilaquil.mx/en/solutions/ai-products.md): Web platforms and mobile apps with AI at their core, built with the same engineering discipline as always.